Problem Tree Analysis

This problem tree toolkit will guide you through building a Preliminary Problem Tree. The goal is to clarify the root causes, core problem, and consequences of a key challenge your project seeks to address:

✅ Break down complex challenges into root causes, core problems, and effects. ✅ Use AI strategically to accelerate desk research while maintaining quality. ✅ Build a preliminary Problem Tree that separates evidence from assumptions. ✅ Prepare targeted questions for stakeholder validation. ✅ Create a foundation for all subsequent project design work.

🧭 Why Problem Tree Analysis Matters

The Challenge

Most social impact projects struggle not because of bad intentions, but because of unclear problem definition. Without solid problem analysis, you end up with:

❌ Vague, unmeasurable goals. ❌ Activities that don't connect to outcomes. ❌ Solutions that miss the real issues. ❌ Proposals that confuse rather than convince funders.

📋 Step-by-Step Implementation Guide

Phase 1: Preparation

1. Define your problem scope

   • Write 1-2 sentence problem statement

   • Specify population, geography, timeframe

   • List what you already know

2. Set up documentation

   • Create folder for sources and citations

   • Prepare note-taking system (digital or analog)

   • Set up Problem Tree template

3. Build MCP prompt

   • Customize template with your context

   • Review and refine prompt language

   • Prepare to copy-paste into AI system

Phase 2: AI-Assisted Literature Review

1. Run MCP prompt

   • Execute in ChatGPT, Claude, or similar

   • Save complete output

   • Initial review for obvious issues

2. Quality verification

   • Check source credibility and recency

   • Verify 2-3 key citations

   • Note gaps or contradictions

3. Organize findings

   • Extract problem tree elements

   • Sort indicators and questions

   • Tag evidence vs. assumptions

Phase 3: Tree Construction

1. Draft core problem (10 min)

   • Refine based on AI output

   • Ensure specificity and clarity

   • Avoid causes or solutions

2. Map causes and effects (15 min)

   • Organize by levels and categories

   • Apply (E) and (A) tags

   • Check logical connections

3. Quality review (5 min)

   • Use provided checklist

   • Verify balance and depth

   • Identify priority assumptions

Phase 4: Stakeholder Preparation

1. Convert assumptions to questions (10 min)

   • Focus on highest-priority (A) items

   • Create open-ended, non-leading questions

   • Aim for 8-10 core questions

2. Plan validation approach (5 min)

   • Identify key stakeholder types needed

   • Consider access and engagement methods

   • Set timeline for validation activities